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The Poisson Distribution and Peyton Manning's Inconsistency

Peyton Manning is the most inconsistent quarterback in the NFL. This is a compliment! Last season, his performance was so “inconsistent” with the norm that he set an NFL record for passing touchdowns in a season. In this post, I will explain the mathematics behind why the season-to-season variation in star players’ performances will dwarf that of an average player. This has important fantasy ramifications, as your entire season can be won or lost by the exceptionally good or bad performance of just one star player.
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Fantasy Football Drafts and the Minimax Algorithm

If you play in a standard Yahoo fantasy football league, you should pick Stephen Gostkowski above Andrew Luck in your draft. I’m serious! Your friends may laugh, but they should be taking notes! In this post, I will show how a game theory tool for analyzing decision making explains why drafting Gostkowski over Luck is the “optimal” draft strategy.

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The Mathematics of Quarterback Decision Making

Quarterback is the highest pressure position in football. The outcome of every play depends on the quarterback’s lightning-fast decisions about how to pass or hand off the ball. On a passing play, a quarterback must look to his receivers, and at each look he must instantly decide whether to throw the ball. If he throws too early, he may have lost the opportunity of a better target that would have emerged later. But if he waits too long, he may end up stuck with a bad option like a sack. So, when should the QB stop looking and throw the ball?
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Who will score the most EPA this week?
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Peyton Manning
Yesterday's Top Winners

Will be posted after NFL Week 1.
Advanced Stat of the Day

James Harden led the NBA in win shares with 16.4 during the 2014-2015 season.